I've been listening to the radio for the past hour or so - slowly waking up my brain as I make breakfast and wash dishes... So far I've heard 4 stories on how Americans are beginning to adapt (not just to climate change, but to the "cracking" - see the post below) - one on co-generation, one on growing vegetables, one on airlines charging for checked luggage and one on boat owners cutting back on joy rides.
I was in the midst of washing a pot while the cogeneration story played, so I couldn't hear all of it. Instead, my mind started to wander to a lecture I heard about a year ago. A cogeneration consultant talked about how Dubai is leading the field with tons of huge new cogeneration projects. Seemingly in possession of all the cheap oil in the world, and Dubai is investing in cogeneration... food for thought.
My mind wandered further down this track. A couple of years ago I traveled to Libya with my grandfather. We had the opportunity to hear a presentation from Qaddafi's administration on Libyan economic development. Ever the trouble-maker, I asked a question: "These economic development plans sound great, but they all seem heavily dependent on cheap oil. And your projections do not show oil lasting forever. What are you going to do when the oil runs out?"
The speaker looked me in the eyes for a moment and paused before proclaiming, "We're going to fill the desert with solar panels and export hydrogen to the first world."
Well, at least someone has a plan!! Of course, given the small scope and slow pace of American adaptation - a few more bucks for checked baggage, a few less joy-riders, a vegetable here and there (as much as I love veggies...) - we'll still be dependent on Middle Eastern dictatorships for our energy, even in a new energy era.
What happened to American innovation? As long as we keep burying our heads in the oil sands, we'll never see our way out of this one...
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Monday, May 19, 2008
Scattered Climate Thoughts
My brain isn't organized enough right now to put these into any kind of extended post, so this is just an update - scattered ponderings...
I'm feeling much better since I last wrote, though I did have a dream about petroleum monsters: I'm in the middle of a pristine place, which I think of as a forest, but it is all white. I am trying to move through it undetected, but these hands keep touching me through the air - as though they're from another dimension. I try to run the edge of the forest, but there are these really tall, black, tree-like creatures with what look like cobwebs - big sticky strings - hanging down from them. At their feet is a fleet of black shiny vehicles. I find out somehow that every night they move their fleet forward, encroaching on the forest with their sleek cars. They use their shine and advertising slogans to distract people from their behavior. I try to attack them but get stuck the black cobwebs and flung back into the forest. Weird!
I've been thinking lately about what a narrow frame "climate change" is. Climate change is really only one aspect of a much, much larger, systemic problem, that we don't even have the vocabulary to address. When I say I'm depressed about climate change, that's only part of the story. I'm depressed about the cyclone in Burma and the terrible dictatorship there, about the rising poverty, the economy, food prices...and these things all seem interrelated in a way that I'm not yet capable of articulating. They all seem interrelated because they seem like fractures in an egg shell, each a separate crack, all emanating from the same cause, all leading to the same fate.
In fact, that's a great way to think about it! A fractured eggshell. That is what this blog is about. The shell is cracking and it's scary as hell, but it holds the promise of new life - transformation (as discussed in an earlier post). But we need a new language to discuss this - a new frame that doesn't just look at each crack in isolation.
After my friend's recent thesis defense on climate solutions, the audience was practically climbing out of their seats, clamoring to ask questions, pose points of view. We need more public fora for discussing this issue. But we also need a new public language to capture the complexity - to allow us to see things afresh. Perhaps we should call it "the cracking." Other suggestions?
It seems like we're past the point of no return. Mitigation is still important, but adaptation is increasingly on my mind. How will we cope? Not just to climate change, but to "the cracking." We need resilient communities prepared for a new kind of self-sufficient existence. It seems there is untested opportunity in the idea of adaptation, however. What if we prepare low-income communities for high energy prices by equipping them with solar hot water or solar pv? We not only address issues of economic justice and help prepare communities for what lies ahead, but we also help reduce GHG emissions. And somehow it seems more politically palatable. Much of politics and policy is about playing with perception (see Deborah Stone). Policies that have concentrated benefits and diffused costs are much more likely to be successful than those that have concentrated costs and diffused benefits. Hence, the climate problem - concentrated costs, diffused benefits = inaction. But if we start thinking more about adaptation - improving resiliency - we might be able to change people's perceptions of benefits. When you start talking about equipping a community to survive economic/ecological disaster, suddenly the benefits seem much more concentrated than when you talk about "reducing carbon footprints."
Environmentalists have been hesitant to focus on adaptation because they fear that it will distract from mitigation. But, at this point, we need both. And the two can go hand in hand. We can call it "adigation," or perhaps just "action."
I'm feeling much better since I last wrote, though I did have a dream about petroleum monsters: I'm in the middle of a pristine place, which I think of as a forest, but it is all white. I am trying to move through it undetected, but these hands keep touching me through the air - as though they're from another dimension. I try to run the edge of the forest, but there are these really tall, black, tree-like creatures with what look like cobwebs - big sticky strings - hanging down from them. At their feet is a fleet of black shiny vehicles. I find out somehow that every night they move their fleet forward, encroaching on the forest with their sleek cars. They use their shine and advertising slogans to distract people from their behavior. I try to attack them but get stuck the black cobwebs and flung back into the forest. Weird!
* * *
I've been thinking lately about what a narrow frame "climate change" is. Climate change is really only one aspect of a much, much larger, systemic problem, that we don't even have the vocabulary to address. When I say I'm depressed about climate change, that's only part of the story. I'm depressed about the cyclone in Burma and the terrible dictatorship there, about the rising poverty, the economy, food prices...and these things all seem interrelated in a way that I'm not yet capable of articulating. They all seem interrelated because they seem like fractures in an egg shell, each a separate crack, all emanating from the same cause, all leading to the same fate.
In fact, that's a great way to think about it! A fractured eggshell. That is what this blog is about. The shell is cracking and it's scary as hell, but it holds the promise of new life - transformation (as discussed in an earlier post). But we need a new language to discuss this - a new frame that doesn't just look at each crack in isolation.
After my friend's recent thesis defense on climate solutions, the audience was practically climbing out of their seats, clamoring to ask questions, pose points of view. We need more public fora for discussing this issue. But we also need a new public language to capture the complexity - to allow us to see things afresh. Perhaps we should call it "the cracking." Other suggestions?
* * *
It seems like we're past the point of no return. Mitigation is still important, but adaptation is increasingly on my mind. How will we cope? Not just to climate change, but to "the cracking." We need resilient communities prepared for a new kind of self-sufficient existence. It seems there is untested opportunity in the idea of adaptation, however. What if we prepare low-income communities for high energy prices by equipping them with solar hot water or solar pv? We not only address issues of economic justice and help prepare communities for what lies ahead, but we also help reduce GHG emissions. And somehow it seems more politically palatable. Much of politics and policy is about playing with perception (see Deborah Stone). Policies that have concentrated benefits and diffused costs are much more likely to be successful than those that have concentrated costs and diffused benefits. Hence, the climate problem - concentrated costs, diffused benefits = inaction. But if we start thinking more about adaptation - improving resiliency - we might be able to change people's perceptions of benefits. When you start talking about equipping a community to survive economic/ecological disaster, suddenly the benefits seem much more concentrated than when you talk about "reducing carbon footprints."
Environmentalists have been hesitant to focus on adaptation because they fear that it will distract from mitigation. But, at this point, we need both. And the two can go hand in hand. We can call it "adigation," or perhaps just "action."
Monday, May 12, 2008
Dwelling on the Dark Side
"Scientists at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii say that CO2 levels in the atmosphere now stand at 387 parts per million (ppm), up almost 40% since the industrial revolution and the highest for at least the last 650,000 years.
The figures, published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on its website, also confirm that carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas, is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than expected. The annual mean growth rate for 2007 was 2.14ppm - the fourth year in the past six to see an annual rise greater than 2ppm. From 1970 to 2000, the concentration rose by about 1.5ppm each year, but since 2000 the annual rise has leapt to an average 2.1ppm.
Scientists say the shift could indicate that the Earth is losing its natural ability to soak up billions of tons of carbon each year. Climate models assume that about half our future emissions will be re-absorbed by forests and oceans, but the new figures confirm this may be too optimistic. If more of our carbon pollution stays in the atmosphere, it means emissions will have to be cut by more than currently projected to prevent dangerous levels of global warming." Guardian - UK
I was in a bad mood before I read that. Then I stumbled across another article - read at your own (emotional) risk: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3883272.ece. It's about how Greenland is psyched that the ice is melting, so they can access their oil reserves. (Fh@7&$%**!!!)
Here I am graduating, getting married in less than two months. How do I go about planning for my life ahead? Should I just go about my business, pretending nothing will change? Should I start farming, hunkering down and learning survival skills? Neither of these options seem that practical at the moment. My education has supposedly prepared me to make positive change - positive change in a business as usual world - incremental, glacial. Actually, glacial change is would be great - if I could only make change as fast as the glaciers are melting (ha!)
Normally, I try to put a hopeful spin on it, but right now, the truth is, I'm pessimistic and grumpy. Dark days ahead...
No, I can't end this post like that. I don't know what lies ahead. This is where faith comes in, I suppose - a faith in something greater than myself - the Earth, and the community of life - God, if you wish. I see myself as the whole, but I must practice seeing myself as a part, erasing the boundaries that separate. When I remember to think about it - to feel grace and gratitude, to revel and share in the beautiful chaos I'm a part of - this larger vision strengthens me. It gives me hope. I need to breathe, to reinvigorate my spirit, my sense of awe, my connection with something so much greater...
It's hard to articulate faith in a paragraph, especially when it's as amorphous as mine. The point is not so much to articulate it, but to remember it. We may have to fortify ourselves outwardly for the dark days ahead. We must also fortify ourselves inwardly - in whatever shape or tincture you prefer.
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